Our first question after any Budget is always, what does this do to improve the life chances of children?
It’s no surprise that our immediate reaction to this year’s Budget was a huge sense of relief that the Government has chosen to scrap the two child limit in full. This is something we have campaigned for over many years, and Ministers deserves huge credit for listening and acting.
As some of today’s front pages show, this is not an easy decision, it will not be universally popular, and it provides those who support a limit to claim the Government is chucking money at ‘Benefits Street’. We don’t share that view or claims that all those in receipt of benefits are ‘scroungers’.
There are reams of evidence showing the unfairness and ineffectiveness of a policy that was pulling hundreds of children into poverty every week. There are countless studies showing how growing up in poverty is more likely to lead to shorter life expectancy, to poorer educational outcomes, to worse physical and mental health, and to reduced life chances.
Yesterday’s announcement is the fastest and most cost-effective way of reducing child poverty, and all the early projections are that this will provide a significant boost to cutting the number of children growing up in disadvantage. A Government that is serious about widening opportunity, and building a stronger economy and society, had no choice but to scrap the cap. This decision has planted an important foundation for the rest of the child poverty strategy to build upon.
We also welcome funding announced in the Budget to support the Youth Guarantee, which includes offering a guaranteed six-month paid work placement for every eligible 18-to 21 year old who has been on Universal Credit and looking for work for 18 months, should help many young people into work, and we are very pleased to see the Government allocate £18 million to improve and upgrade playgrounds across England. This new investment in playgrounds takes up our Play Commission’s recommendation calling for the Government to ringfence investment for councils to spend on playgrounds. We hope this is the beginning of a new chapter where the Government recognises the crucial importance of play.
Amongst all the noise and commentary about tax rises and Budget leaks, many will have missed one major announcement in the Budget – that the Government will take over full responsibility for special educational needs spending from local councils. This is a very significant financial change. The OBR has predicted the annual costs of SEND spending in England will reach £6bn a year by 2028, while council SEND deficits are projected to reach £14bn by 2028.
However, although the Government confirmed it will take over full responsibility for SEND spending from April 2028, it did not explain how it will pay for it. Understandably, many school leaders will be looking nervously at the OBR’s warning that if the extra costs are fully funded through the Department for Education’s core schools budget, this would result in a 4.9% real fall in mainstream schools spending per pupil from 2028/2029.
The Government has dismissed the OBR projection saying it does not include future policy changes, including the crucially important SEND reforms due in its forthcoming White Paper.
That White Paper has become more important than ever. If there was pressure before to get it right, there is even more pressure now. The temptation to introduce reforms that are primarily about delivering quick cuts to the cost of SEN will be great but must be resisted. The Government needs to break the long link between failing to support children in their early years, to starting school behind, to the increased risk of absence and exclusion, to poor educational outcomes, and finally to higher chances of becoming NEET. That chain needs to be broken. Cutting school spending in real terms cannot be an option. It would break morale still further, and in the long term by counterproductive for a range of different reasons.
The Government has done the right thing on the two child limit. It now faces another major decision that will impact on children’s life chances.
Ministers have shown in this Budget that they are willing to be brave and that they will invest in children to widen opportunity. They are going to have to do it again and ensure that their SEN reforms provide both support to all those who need it, while also rebuilding strong early years scaffolding to support children and families and cut the cost of crisis.
